According to Energy Map, both directions of cross-border electricity trade declined on 21–27 September: exports fell by 23.4% compared to the previous week, to 83.7 GWh, while imports decreased by 26.1%, to 13.7 GWh. Net exports amounted to exactly 70.0 GWh. Overall, electricity sales exceeded purchases by 6.1 times.
Weather conditions had a significant impact on cross-border electricity trade. The reporting week was noticeably cooler and significantly cloudier, with rainfall in the middle of the week and clearer weather towards the weekend. During daylight hours (09:00–18:00), exports fell by 39.7%, compared to a 16.4% decline during the remaining hours. This points to lower output from household solar PV installations, which under cloudy conditions are less able to cover daytime consumption and free up generation capacity for exports.
The trend is consistent with consumption data reported by Ukrenergo. Consumption increased on 22–24 September and declined on 25 September as cloud cover decreased. The sharpest drop in exports occurred on Wednesday, 23 September. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday together accounted for virtually the entire weekly decline in exports.
The structural electricity surplus is being sustained not only by moderate seasonal demand and sufficient generation availability, but also by a negative factor – a significant reduction in electricity consumption following missile attacks on energy-intensive industries.
Imports by country*:
- Hungary – 8.1 GWh (58.8%);
- Poland – 2.9 GWh (20.8%);
- Romania – 2.8 GWh (20.0%);
- Moldova – 0.05 GWh (0.4%).
Import volumes declined from Poland by 51.2%, Romania by 28.2%, and Hungary by 9.0%. Imports from Moldova increased slightly from a low base, while no supplies from Slovakia were recorded for the third consecutive week.
Exports by country*:
- Hungary – 41.8 GWh (49.9%);
- Moldova – 25.5 GWh (30.5%);
- Romania – 16.0 GWh (19.1%);
- Poland – 0.4 GWh (0.5%).
Exports declined on three routes: to Moldova by 29.6%, Hungary by 22.2%, and Romania by 15.8%. Poland was the only destination where exports increased, by 40.6%, although volumes remained negligible. No exports to Slovakia were recorded.
*Figures may not add up due to rounding.